Tuesday, November 15, 2011

An Indicator to Rule Them All

Finally after a lot of research, back testing, and some strenuous programming, I've drawn up the first version of this new market indicator... and I haven't given it a name yet..... suggestions are welcome haha

I don't think I'll ever consider any indicator, algorithm, or strategy complete, and will continue to evolve it make it better..... but for now I consider it workable.

Now a little background... this algorithm developed completely by accident when I was trying to figure out ways to analyse real-time tick data of all underlying S&P500 stocks so I could develop a long/short strategy involving all the 500 stocks.

This algo, originally meant for another purpose, started to pin point market tops and bottoms intraday which were tradable on the ES Futures.  Sometimes it is so damn accurate at picking market tops and bottoms intraday that it's scary.  BUT as I learned long ago in physics class, there are always times when a rule breaks down.  For this algo, it happens to be market disruptions, for example huge news that hits the market during the day which causes most traders and more importantly computer algorithms which usually trade different strategies against each other to align and take the market in one direction without giving it a chance for correction.  So as you may have already guessed, this is a counter-trend algorithm as it tries to pick an intraday market bottom or top before it actually  happens.

So until I decide against it, I will put up my daily ES charts with markets at times of indication, exactly when they are given.  Although I will be posting the charts after the day is over, I will NOT move or put in the indications after the fact.... they will be put in while I'm making trades, in real-time.

Also note that, the algorithm comes up with different "likelihoods" of reversal when it gives the signals, this will not yet be put on the charts.  So you will only see the indications, but not the confidence level yet.

Below is the Nov 9th indications on the 1 Minute ES chart.

and Nov 10th,


Also, you will notice some trend lines and support and resistance lines are drawn during the day, as well as green up triangles and yellow down triangles... which is another one of my programmed indicators.

It is worth mentioning that there are days when NO indications are given, and I will probably not post these days' charts.... otherwise I'll try to keep posting the results here on this blog.... STAY TUNED FOR MORE.

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