Merry Christmas!!

No trade indications in the past couple of days leading to Christmas break with lower volumes and choppier markets....

Merry Christmas everyone.... enjoy the break!!!  I'll be back trading with you Jan 16th, 2012.

Dec 19th - indication areas

There is definitely weakness in the markets, rallies are shorted into, gap ups don't hold.

Dec 16th - single trade indication

Here is the chart, good long indication at a good support level... and the bounce was helped by the news that came in confirming Fitch's AAA rating of France.

Here are the Tweets:

Dec16 12:32- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1210.5 Confidence 3/5

Dec16 12:45- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1208.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec16 12:46- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1209 Confidence 3/5


Have a great weekend everyone.

Dec 15th - single trade, great pick

Here it is:

Dec 14th - weak market

The broad market was really weak these past two days.... most rallies were sold into and support areas were easily broken.  I could see a retest of 1200 and maybe lower in the coming days.

Here's today's chart and indications:

Trade safely, capital preservation is key.

Dec 13 - not the best day

ahhh damn the Fed and their comments.... throws a wrench into the market everytime Bernanke opens his mouth....

Here is the chart for today:

The one bounce area early in the day was correctly picked, but the system gets caught trying to pick bounce areas in a big wave of selling that comes into the market.... and doesn't do so well.

The massive and disorderly selling makes it hard to average with single contracts, and to remain profitable when the bounce or short-covering begins, a pyramid down scheme needs to be deployed.... so additions to the long positions would have to increase as the market goes down and higher probability areas are established.  So for example, long 1 contract in the 1225 range, 2 contracts at 1220, 4 contracts in the 1215 range.  This brings the average cost to the 1217.80 area and makes the trade profitable at the bounce.... but it increases risk with every down tick.

More selling than this would mean that at the next level you'd have to buy 8 contracts, and hold 15 contracts!!  However, in 99.99% of time there will be a bounce as buyers find lower levels more attractive and as shorts start to cover positions, SO the more you pyramid down, the better that cost average and possibility of profitability in this type of sellers market.  HOWEVER, that 0.01% of the time you hit the fat tail and a market condition that is NOT normal in anyway.... just like May 6th, 2010!!  This type of day is guaranteed to wipe out your account in a pyramid down scheme!  So traders beware!!!!

Trading is a game of probabilities.

Dec 12th indications

Good day today:

Tweets were as follows:
Dec12 10:20- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1227.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 10:22- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1227.25 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 10:24- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1226.75 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 10:26- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1226.75 Confidence 3/5


Dec12 11:48- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1224.25 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 11:49- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1224 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 11:54- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1223 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 11:56- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1220.75 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec12 11:59- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1221.75 Confidence 3/5

Dec 9th - System Indicatons

Today's indications came at two time frames indicating a good short area.

Tweets were as follows:
Dec9 11:30- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1247.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec9 11:32- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1247.25 Confidence 3/5
Dec9 11:33- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1247.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec9 11:40- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1248 Confidence 3/5
Dec9 11:43- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1248 Confidence 3/5
Dec9 11:44- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1248.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec9 11:44- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1249.25 Confidence 3.5/5


Dec9 14:49- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1251.75 Confidence 3/5
Dec9 14:52- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1251.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec9 14:53- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1252.25 Confidence 3/5
Dec9 14:55- High Probability Drop Area ES: 1252 Confidence 3/5

Dec 8th - another day another 12 point capture... and lots of tweets

Today was a great trading day, the volatility was amazing, but the market was generally weak.  Not to mention contract rollover day for the ES, so today we started trading the March 2012 contracts as front month.

The long indications are given on the chart below:

The last bounce of the day was very profitable, however the long signals at the end of the day were not traded as bad news came out and there was no time for the trade to work out.

For those following my system signals on twitter @midtownam, probably have noticed that you get multiple indications and sometimes they overlap, this is because sometimes as the ES grinds up and down near a certain level, the system cycles and calls for bounces multiple times at the same level.

So today's tweets were as follows (grouped by time frames):
Dec8 11:10- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1238.75 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 11:14- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1238.25 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 11:16- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1238.5 Confidence 3/5


Dec8 11:37- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1237 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 11:38- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1237 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 11:40- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1235.25 Confidence 3.5/5


Dec8 13:05- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1234 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 13:05- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1233 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 13:07- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1232.75 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 13:08- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1233 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 13:10- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1233.25 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 13:10- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1232.75 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 13:12- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1231.5 Confidence 4/5
Dec8 13:12- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1231.25 Confidence 4/5
Dec8 13:14- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1232.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 13:14- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1232.5 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 13:15- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1232.25 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 13:22- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1232.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 13:24- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1232 Confidence 3/5


Dec8 14:54- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1230 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 14:55- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1230 Confidence 3/5


Dec8 15:49- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1229 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 15:50- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1230 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 15:51- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1228.75 Confidence 3/5
Dec8 15:51- High Probability  Bounce Area ES: 1228 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 15:52- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1228 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 15:55- High Probability  Bounce Area ES: 1227.5 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec8 15:56- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1225.75 Confidence 4/5
Dec8 15:58- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1226.5 Confidence 3.5/5

Dec 7th - What a kick ass day!

Ok so it's not a common when the system generates a both long and short signal within the same day...... but damn this was a good trade.  I've shown the levels on the chart as they happen.

If you're watching the signals come in realtime on Twitter, you'd probably see that for the intraday short signals near the end of the day there were as many as 5 posts.... it is not uncommon for the system to trigger multiple times around a certain area, confirming the possibility of a drop.

If you're not following me on Twitter at @midtownam, then here were the signals:

Intraday bounce signal:
High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1248.0 Confidence 3/5


Intraday drop signal:
High Probability Drop Area ES: 1263 Confidence 3/5
High Probability Drop Area ES: 1263.25 Confidence 3/5
High Probability Drop Area ES: 1265.25 Confidence 3/5
High Probability Drop Area ES: 1264.75 Confidence 3/5
High Probability Drop Area ES: 1265.5 Confidence 3/5
High Probability Drop Area ES: 1266.75 Confidence 3.5/5

Dec 5th, System generated signal & Twitter starts

Today was the first test of the twitter feed for the system generated signals!! The post was made on time and with out problem, EXCEPT that where the ES DEC price should have been tweeted, the word "Price" was!!! Oops!

Still some kinks are being worked out!

The signal came at 3:17pm, when the ES was trading at 1250, which is also a good round number support... there was a 7 point bounce to the end of the day.

Dec 2nd, indications

Dec 1st System indications

Only one signal was given today, which turned out to be an accurate prediction of the exact top.

GREAT NEWS!!

I'm in the process of adding some new features, and one will be the real time indications of my system which will be tweeted at @midtownam. So.... click below:




I'm really excited about this new feature!