No trade indications in the past couple of days leading to Christmas break with lower volumes and choppier markets....
Merry Christmas everyone.... enjoy the break!!! I'll be back trading with you Jan 16th, 2012.
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Monday, December 19, 2011
Dec 19th - indication areas
There is definitely weakness in the markets, rallies are shorted into, gap ups don't hold.
Friday, December 16, 2011
Dec 16th - single trade indication
Here is the chart, good long indication at a good support level... and the bounce was helped by the news that came in confirming Fitch's AAA rating of France.
Here are the Tweets:
Dec16 12:46- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1209 Confidence 3/5
Have a great weekend everyone.
Here are the Tweets:
Dec16 12:32- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1210.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec16 12:45- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1208.5 Confidence 3/5 Dec16 12:46- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1209 Confidence 3/5
Have a great weekend everyone.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Dec 14th - weak market
The broad market was really weak these past two days.... most rallies were sold into and support areas were easily broken. I could see a retest of 1200 and maybe lower in the coming days.
Here's today's chart and indications:
Trade safely, capital preservation is key.
Here's today's chart and indications:
Trade safely, capital preservation is key.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Dec 13 - not the best day
ahhh damn the Fed and their comments.... throws a wrench into the market everytime Bernanke opens his mouth....
Here is the chart for today:
The one bounce area early in the day was correctly picked, but the system gets caught trying to pick bounce areas in a big wave of selling that comes into the market.... and doesn't do so well.
The massive and disorderly selling makes it hard to average with single contracts, and to remain profitable when the bounce or short-covering begins, a pyramid down scheme needs to be deployed.... so additions to the long positions would have to increase as the market goes down and higher probability areas are established. So for example, long 1 contract in the 1225 range, 2 contracts at 1220, 4 contracts in the 1215 range. This brings the average cost to the 1217.80 area and makes the trade profitable at the bounce.... but it increases risk with every down tick.
More selling than this would mean that at the next level you'd have to buy 8 contracts, and hold 15 contracts!! However, in 99.99% of time there will be a bounce as buyers find lower levels more attractive and as shorts start to cover positions, SO the more you pyramid down, the better that cost average and possibility of profitability in this type of sellers market. HOWEVER, that 0.01% of the time you hit the fat tail and a market condition that is NOT normal in anyway.... just like May 6th, 2010!! This type of day is guaranteed to wipe out your account in a pyramid down scheme! So traders beware!!!!
Trading is a game of probabilities.
Here is the chart for today:
The one bounce area early in the day was correctly picked, but the system gets caught trying to pick bounce areas in a big wave of selling that comes into the market.... and doesn't do so well.
The massive and disorderly selling makes it hard to average with single contracts, and to remain profitable when the bounce or short-covering begins, a pyramid down scheme needs to be deployed.... so additions to the long positions would have to increase as the market goes down and higher probability areas are established. So for example, long 1 contract in the 1225 range, 2 contracts at 1220, 4 contracts in the 1215 range. This brings the average cost to the 1217.80 area and makes the trade profitable at the bounce.... but it increases risk with every down tick.
More selling than this would mean that at the next level you'd have to buy 8 contracts, and hold 15 contracts!! However, in 99.99% of time there will be a bounce as buyers find lower levels more attractive and as shorts start to cover positions, SO the more you pyramid down, the better that cost average and possibility of profitability in this type of sellers market. HOWEVER, that 0.01% of the time you hit the fat tail and a market condition that is NOT normal in anyway.... just like May 6th, 2010!! This type of day is guaranteed to wipe out your account in a pyramid down scheme! So traders beware!!!!
Trading is a game of probabilities.
Dec 12th indications
Good day today:
Tweets were as follows:
Dec12 10:20- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1227.5 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 10:22- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1227.25 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 10:24- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1226.75 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 10:26- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1226.75 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 11:48- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1224.25 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 11:49- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1224 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 11:54- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1223 Confidence 3/5
Dec12 11:56- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1220.75 Confidence 3.5/5
Dec12 11:59- High Probability Bounce Area ES: 1221.75 Confidence 3/5
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